Both equities and bonds have been rallying in November. Inflation pressures have been easing and investors are becoming increasingly confident that the US Federal Reserve and other central banks may be done with raising rates.
Last week’s better-than-expected US CPI data showed that core inflation had fallen to its lowest reading in more than two years – stocks rallied strongly and the 10-year Treasury Yield fell below 4.4% by the end of the week. There is growing anticipation among many market participants that the Fed will begin cutting rates by the middle of next year.
UK inflation also declined more than expected with annual consumer price inflation falling to 4.6% in October.
The decline in inflation has certainly been helped by a significant fall in the price of oil on global demand concerns (last week the oil price was trading more than 20% lower than its September high) and the US Dollar has been falling with the Dollar Index reaching its lowest level today (Monday) since early September.
UK Market Chart 17th November 2023
US Market Chart 17th November 2023
US Risk Barometer 17th November 2023
Europe Risk Barometer 17th November 2023
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